Testing and Tracing
The emphasis of this blog has always been , not only to look beyond the mere technical use of a simple idea as a savior, ( The purists view) but to resist the momentum and waste developed by the quick fix wannabes who insist on their half baked solutions - usually under the mandate of being ; elected to spend " .
There is nothing wrong with testing and tracing , -just HOW it is used.
This blog has asserted that abuse of scientific principles is not only common , as Whitehead expected . but the failures often increase the number of new quick fixes and their failures as a result - very wasteful and unsustainable.
The reason why wannabes and purists, can't see the end from the beginning is because, not only can they they NOT SEE the end from the beginning, or the range of oncosts , externalities or unexpected consequences, but also because of their religion ( worship of technique) they don't want to wait for the full story or process controls needed - these people just wannabe known as the first to name the solution . their heresy is that they think the pulpit is for new ideas , not the sustainable place it can be - for ideas that work.
The tax burden of this unsustainable methodology has yet to be put by any party Because the parties have all largely adopted it they can't see the errors in it .This stupidity and cul de sac and cliff directed ambition has profound implications for our economy and career and life choices for our children. When have any current wannabes talk about good work in the environment. Many have the audacity to talk about shovels . We are not a smart science culture -- we just think we are - and pride has always gone before a fall.
Anyone who has dealt with the real permutations and combinations in statistical analysis (as described in my recent lecture on Purists and Pedantry ) knows that unless you factor in all or most of the variables in producing a result, the whole test can be wasted ( The lack of caution about this likely cost has yet to hit the country - our Country Australia )
There is nothing wrong with testing and tracing , -just HOW it is used.
This blog has asserted that abuse of scientific principles is not only common , as Whitehead expected . but the failures often increase the number of new quick fixes and their failures as a result - very wasteful and unsustainable.
The reason why wannabes and purists, can't see the end from the beginning is because, not only can they they NOT SEE the end from the beginning, or the range of oncosts , externalities or unexpected consequences, but also because of their religion ( worship of technique) they don't want to wait for the full story or process controls needed - these people just wannabe known as the first to name the solution . their heresy is that they think the pulpit is for new ideas , not the sustainable place it can be - for ideas that work.
The tax burden of this unsustainable methodology has yet to be put by any party Because the parties have all largely adopted it they can't see the errors in it .This stupidity and cul de sac and cliff directed ambition has profound implications for our economy and career and life choices for our children. When have any current wannabes talk about good work in the environment. Many have the audacity to talk about shovels . We are not a smart science culture -- we just think we are - and pride has always gone before a fall.
Anyone who has dealt with the real permutations and combinations in statistical analysis (as described in my recent lecture on Purists and Pedantry ) knows that unless you factor in all or most of the variables in producing a result, the whole test can be wasted ( The lack of caution about this likely cost has yet to hit the country - our Country Australia )
I will list some variables not considered by Doctor Andrews testing initiative ( there maybe more in relation to CIVID 19 tests
The history of his government and their record of mistaken direction and quick fix in crisis management is outlined elsewhere. InCompetence in leadership is one thing, but a failure to admit to it leads to corruption ( its its broadest sense - IT is not just a bad person but involves bad process, ( may include - ignorance arrogance and prejudice compliance and tree climbing and attention seeking ) Just why Brett Sutton got the job and why we don't know , Corruption in well trained people who may be misled is a least partly ongoing allows man's bad habits in seeking to be influential and name causes in relation to bushfires and other matters,
As Galbraith said of Reagan - you can't blame the leaders entirely - all people are pulling and pushing him and if he makes a mistake its fairly, in a democracy, on all of our heads .
The history of his government and their record of mistaken direction and quick fix in crisis management is outlined elsewhere. InCompetence in leadership is one thing, but a failure to admit to it leads to corruption ( its its broadest sense - IT is not just a bad person but involves bad process, ( may include - ignorance arrogance and prejudice compliance and tree climbing and attention seeking ) Just why Brett Sutton got the job and why we don't know , Corruption in well trained people who may be misled is a least partly ongoing allows man's bad habits in seeking to be influential and name causes in relation to bushfires and other matters,
As Galbraith said of Reagan - you can't blame the leaders entirely - all people are pulling and pushing him and if he makes a mistake its fairly, in a democracy, on all of our heads .
Before I go public I triple check my assumptions . I know the value of experiments but i know the cost and seldom use them in the way most fact checkers and dilittants do -.
ReplyDeleteA professional knows that the information he brings to a decision cannot be spelt out simply in a few words and connection clauses .
It is therefore very disturbing to hear our Premier trying to explain why his very own data collection experiment needs tweeking to Tell HIM and only Him what he still hasn't concluded on ( he is not talking to our doubts and fears and deaths from COVID and deaths with COVID ) what is really happening in the atmosphere of ignorance and blind ambition that is now August 2020 .
I probably wouldn't write this except the situation is now moving beyond anyone in the States control .
Media are, in absence of real Commonwealth leadership on this issue , speculating on mere death and case numbers and making , like Andrews has encouraged, blind presumptions about the end of a threat.---- when they have no idea what the numbers really mean . Nothing new there from the leading hunchmakers
A brilliant doctor has recently published a great book on the dilemma'a around collecting data,(" Snowballs in a Blizzard)" His wisdom has stunned the medical profession into RESISTING the mere collection of data (eg on blood pressure and sugar levels) ,
ReplyDeleteAs he points out in his excellent review, the personal monitoring of Blood pressure and glucose levels , while a popular idea , is usually not a good idea -- The intended consequences PLU S
-- for the same reason DR Andrews simple Testing idea is not a good idea - because you don't learn much about the actual risk , the numbers are likely create more panic and unproductive speculation than is warranted ; the cost benefit of the idea m ay not only be very very low but is probably highly distracting. Risk assessment should be left to qualified risk assessors . http:// ondewolf.blogspot.com
Ask yourself the question . What motivates todays change of direction ? mere numbers ? something really simple that any first grader would get ?
ReplyDeleteIf your answer is Yes---- how convinced should YOU be that the advocate knows what he is doing; that he is an expert or just a drip under pressure whose EX is exempt from any real experience that matters in the area?
Does the attention rely on HIS OWN tested knowledge or is he "trying something because it is SEEN to be better than doing nothing"?
Would you follow this person if they were spending your money ?
They are your spending your money .
Would we all be better off if the urgency from the latest created crisis was simply dismissed as a fiction perpetuated by desperados seeking to control and keep our attention?