Thursday, August 3, 2017

Facts prove nothing ,Process probabilities predict possible pursuits .

No I don't expect most polys to get this, those of you who want to be ahead of them and the average wannabes,  hang in there
Because I have written many times on the process problems generally,  let me give you an example from my experience .

- an example of this ongoing stupidity is that on this very day in August 2017 the government are chasing more billions to model climate and MDB issues when the limitations of the existing data need to be understood and accepted -- all the stupidity and crude speculation will remain  till the process probabilities are understood. 

Why I wouldn't trust the BOM

As one who has relied on BOM figures for interpreting extreme runoff events ( I designed stream structures) for three decades, I have absolutely NO confidence in the 100 yrs bureaus history of records to date - let alone the risk associated with using automatic devices for some measurements (esp temp and rainfall but for different reasons ) .

At least with volunteers the records could show the disagreements with Head Oficce when " strange things happen",
I know several long term volunteer recorders in the Otways who were not believed when they sent data in, These no record figures meant no record on some of the most unusual days in our history. .
Typical comment from HO was "you must have lost count of the number of times you emptied the column".Read about otways floods for full story here  and here 
My incredulity increased when i realised that those original ( but never recorded by BOM) records explained why we had such incredible river flows in those years.
I still can't truly believe the BOM operate scientifically - they still shift recorder locations and still expect to use the new sites in climate modelling - This very bad practice has caused many of us to find the rainfall data from some stations relatively worthless for long term records.
While auto recording make sense, so does not moving those record sites and using volunteers to record and investigate at some ( esp unusual results)

The outstanding incompetence of the BOM was highlighted recently when the phenomenon I discovered in the Otways in the the 1990s was not even anticipated in Toowoomba catchments ( major Qld floods) with the same weather and physical precursors in the early millennium. 

until someone asks me i will avoid repeating myself HERE

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Progressives get ahead of themselves

New forms of technology can make life easier, but when the suspect faith of many in evolutionary determinism takes hold  adherents can make deep and powerful mistakes .These often powerful religious people  have and will continue to push unreal options  if reality doesn't hit and real truth limits don't touch base.

We all hope Lithium Ion or some new batteries will help manage our power needs,  but they don't just yet ; and the prospects don't look too good .yet certain governments have spent billions subsidizing the airy fairy dream 
As always happens when we are at our most religious,   we refuse to see reality . Last time I looked the critical storage of things like computer hard drives is done with you guessed it - Lead acid batteries --really old technology.,
  The reality in physics is that Ions don't like living close to each other and any voltage above 1.5 sets the parties apart . Explosive stuff.

Thinking we were going to keep warm without coal when wind and solar weren't working is  bout as stupid and blind as one can get YET  Green laborites  have been not only advocating it for decades but spending our money on their dreams.
Realistic scientists.have been fighting blinkered ED groups like they have in ABC for decades Truly time that group got some real practical professional scientists - instead of science worshipers . That religious group have had their say .

Yes, our  religion can be a risk prone problem .( even denying you have one can be a problem )
Make sure yours is a realistic and as predictive as possible when it comes to the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

Monday, February 6, 2017

More police , more money or just more fear of real personal evil in the audience ?

We don't know how to stop crime but Labor s vulnerability to arguments which blame the criminals environment and not their decision making  wilfulness are the base of their particular failure to support the idea of personal responsibility-- at least part of the wider problem of fear ( not crime incidents )

The hypocrisy of the puppet led Daniel Andrews group is that they would tell us how to bring up children when they appear to have no idea.
Tell me  I'm wrong . Tell John Cain he was wrong to worry 
 If we are to PREVENT /reduce adult problems we must have those quiet  strategies that starts early and understands rather than responds-- like DA's  huge emergency management empires.
Puppets pushed around by the sentiment and unsubstantiated; the highly  reactionary  way they spend our money which is sadly , their right of passage.
You need to stop them hurting others in kinder if you are ever to stop young people making excuses for driving around and damaging people .
The spring street gang JUST want us to be kinder ,but aren't mature enough in their thinking to know and practice some form of apparent cruelty.  
Being cruel to be kind- that doesn't come into it when you are arrogant parents of someone else's children.

Saturday, June 11, 2016

Risk management - A ticket means nothing without experience.

One of the stupidest things any government can do is to ignore the way anybody can be  qualified to speak with authority .

Strangely this arrogance can take the form of a false trust based on worship of academics and the world of  innovative approaches to management .Sadly academia are unwilling to admit when they too " don't know" .  I consult academia less and less.

To say " we do it the old way" in the public service is akin to saying "I like living near the back door with the dinosaurs" .This just shows how little the office knows . Dick Smith is one of our most successful entrepreneurs, He like many of us who have found success  knows that copying others is the key to progress -at least at the start.  This dumb worship of new technique is still a cancer in our midst even though it was well squashed by Jacques Ellul in the 1930's

 Fortunately there are some well spoken people like Niall Ferguson saying that the study of history can  free from our addiction to this  quite false analogy from evolution: change worship is  the biggest and dumbest gully trap  in recent history .  

The Victorian Andrews Labor government is in a bit of stupid mood at the moment . It doesn't really want to listen.   It has got itself into a grand old mess by not taking the proverb on the floor of parliament seriously . As Hans Christian Anderson pointed out over 300 yrs ago, even a small child can be the authority to remind us we are dumb and dumber ; fascinated by golden new threads and sharing simple rubbish and worship talk with ourselves.

Professional firefighters ( mainly city based) want to tell volunteers how to manage Fires in the country

A ticket to ride is nothing without experience .Clearly the Labor team don't understand this . If they did , they wouldn't insist those with a ticket told those who didn't have one .
A ticket to ride is nothing without experience .Clearly the labor team don't understand that there are  forms of training.  If they did they wouldn't insist those with a ticket told those who didn't have one
The Labor team like to talk diversity and multiculture,   but they don't seem to understand how it works.

Diversity means a team for the city and a team for the bush .

A bit about fires in the bush Labour on the ground ASAP is critical to effectiveness and CFA people/ volunteers must have AUTHORITY to act . Grass and forest fires spread quickly and in many cases the roundup is the highest priority. Fire controllers should be able to insist on who goes where but this is not the issue, The issue is culturally different places needs and process and even equipment . The need for high level of ground authority may not apply to many fire jobs in the city , There are always failures at fires - only smart arses would use this an excuse to invent new structures rather than real reform and better training for a system that works .
The job in the country too is a part time job . CFA may run out of farmers to help train a new generation if the government if it turns the temporary job of volunteers into fulltime jobs for too many administrators. It can be true that CFA do not always engage professional firefighters when they should.
The implied insult about attitude . CFA can be seen to do things "in the same old way ".Its operatives can act without respect to others in authority and this can be a real problem . The reality is that the main job is not rocket science or management science - Its a lot about risk science . One day , the empire builders will be called to account for substituting helicopters/ technology and technique and process preoccupations for people Sound public service always builds from the bottom up How lucky we are to have the CFA and all its PEOPLE who know risk management like no city person ever will. A ticket is nothing without experience , esp when risk in involved. Our Volunteers can move to the edge of the cliff because they do it daily, Its a very sad day when city people don't know the above and insult out our " well qualified " volunteers . We all also know the country can't afford much of the constant risk averse ducking and weaving solutions dreamed up in the city .

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Anger - the cool calm collected view

In the heat of the moment ----- everyone is offering solutions  see the alternative below
Malcolm Turnbull PM 
( Paraphrase ) Need to try Something new--  experiment , We have time , we are the government and we issue cheques to ourselves to wait
Why so angry?  Because all our power has been stripped away from us and every hour of every day, we are being told by some socially superior politically correct losers - whom we must embrace, what we should say, what is acceptable, what isn't acceptable, whom to kowtow too, how much to hate democracy and western values, whom we must give our money to.....those are just a few of the reasons why we are so angry.
We're angry because we are being taught to hate ourselves because of everything we once used to value. We're expected to lay down and grovel in the face of the things we used to stand up and fight against.  We're angry and we don;t have the power to do anything about it.  We're being mocked by our enemies who resort to outrage when questioned by even the gentlest reason.
And unfortunately a lot of that anger comes from the fairer sex. Gillard set the tone for women to be angry and attack everything a man says and does as women standing up for their rights and all men being misogynists. The left is also stripping away our way of life and then calling us racist, red necks, bigots etc. of cause we are angry.

Why so angry?  Because all our power has been stripped away from us and every hour of every day, we are being told by some socially superior politically correct losers - whom we must embrace, what we should say, what is acceptable, what isn't acceptable, whom to kowtow too, how much to hate democracy and western values, whom we must give our money to.....those are just a few of the reasons why we are so angry.

Monday, October 12, 2015

Technology is not the problem, people and their places are

You can give every one cleanwater,  but what they really need is a livelihood . While some simpletons in the past have spent all their pennies on giving people land and houses , the main motivational issue often remains .Men need work and a way to work their patch  that doesn't just kill em.
The West is still busy trying to solve problems out East and south without really understanding why we have solved them here . Its not technology alone -- its how we see things in total . our worldview 

Rural people are still very vulnerable because their dilemma is the deep one . Its them tha are te cannon fooder for war and the patronising half baked solutions of the technocrats.  Its not a market because both scarcity and abundance ooccur out there and the resouces base is sensitive unlike te concrete and steel of cities .
Understand people and you can help them , Its not enough to give them tools - they have to be the right tools in the situation  the right surgery when pain needs to be dealt with .

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Dear Boss

  • Stick your performance plan!

This is how I get things done.
'I accept loads of risk and review it constantly.
Technically that wastes a bit of time, but I draw all the questions and the doubts of others with me as we get places together. We learn and we train .

If we do it your way, and with y
our blinkered performance plan which requires us to rush harder and faster everywhere, we'll all likely to get killed in the first lane".

The popularity of performance plans with pedants in completely understandable.  Always sensed that many performance plans leave out critical quality information. Sometimes with blinkered managers you have to make things really SIMPLE..
managers may know all the right words but have absolutely no idea how to really place them