Thursday, August 3, 2017

Facts prove nothing ,Process probabilities predict possible pursuits .

No I don't expect most polys to get this, those of you who want to be ahead of them and the average wannabes,  hang in there
Because I have written many times on the process problems generally,  let me give you an example from my experience .

- an example of this ongoing stupidity is that on this very day in August 2017 the government are chasing more billions to model climate and MDB issues when the limitations of the existing data need to be understood and accepted -- all the stupidity and crude speculation will remain  till the process probabilities are understood. 

Why I wouldn't trust the BOM

As one who has relied on BOM figures for interpreting extreme runoff events ( I designed stream structures) for three decades, I have absolutely NO confidence in the 100 yrs bureaus history of records to date - let alone the risk associated with using automatic devices for some measurements (esp temp and rainfall but for different reasons ) .

At least with volunteers the records could show the disagreements with Head Oficce when " strange things happen",
I know several long term volunteer recorders in the Otways who were not believed when they sent data in, These no record figures meant no record on some of the most unusual days in our history. .
Typical comment from HO was "you must have lost count of the number of times you emptied the column".Read about otways floods for full story here  and here 
My incredulity increased when i realised that those original ( but never recorded by BOM) records explained why we had such incredible river flows in those years.
I still can't truly believe the BOM operate scientifically - they still shift recorder locations and still expect to use the new sites in climate modelling - This very bad practice has caused many of us to find the rainfall data from some stations relatively worthless for long term records.
While auto recording make sense, so does not moving those record sites and using volunteers to record and investigate at some ( esp unusual results)


The outstanding incompetence of the BOM was highlighted recently when the phenomenon I discovered in the Otways in the the 1990s was not even anticipated in Toowoomba catchments ( major Qld floods) with the same weather and physical precursors in the early millennium. 

until someone asks me i will avoid repeating myself HERE