Thursday, August 3, 2017

Facts prove nothing ,Process probabilities predict possible pursuits .

No I don't expect most polys to get this, those of you who want to be ahead of them and the average wannabes,  hang in there
Because I have written many times on the process problems generally,  let me give you an example from my experience .

- an example of this ongoing stupidity is that on this very day in August 2017 the government are chasing more billions to model climate and MDB issues when the limitations of the existing data need to be understood and accepted -- all the stupidity and crude speculation will remain  till the process probabilities are understood. 

Why I wouldn't trust the BOM

As one who has relied on BOM figures for interpreting extreme runoff events ( I designed stream structures) for three decades, I have absolutely NO confidence in the 100 yrs bureaus history of records to date - let alone the risk associated with using automatic devices for some measurements (esp temp and rainfall but for different reasons ) .

At least with volunteers the records could show the disagreements with Head Oficce when " strange things happen",
I know several long term volunteer recorders in the Otways who were not believed when they sent data in, These no record figures meant no record on some of the most unusual days in our history. .
Typical comment from HO was "you must have lost count of the number of times you emptied the column".Read about otways floods for full story here  and here 
My incredulity increased when i realised that those original ( but never recorded by BOM) records explained why we had such incredible river flows in those years.
I still can't truly believe the BOM operate scientifically - they still shift recorder locations and still expect to use the new sites in climate modelling - This very bad practice has caused many of us to find the rainfall data from some stations relatively worthless for long term records.
While auto recording make sense, so does not moving those record sites and using volunteers to record and investigate at some ( esp unusual results)


The outstanding incompetence of the BOM was highlighted recently when the phenomenon I discovered in the Otways in the the 1990s was not even anticipated in Toowoomba catchments ( major Qld floods) with the same weather and physical precursors in the early millennium. 

until someone asks me i will avoid repeating myself HERE

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Progressives get ahead of themselves

New forms of technology can make life easier, but when the suspect faith of many in evolutionary determinism takes hold  adherents can make deep and powerful mistakes .These often powerful religious people  have and will continue to push unreal options  if reality doesn't hit and real truth limits don't touch base.

We all hope Lithium Ion or some new batteries will help manage our power needs,  but they don't just yet ; and the prospects don't look too good .yet certain governments have spent billions subsidizing the airy fairy dream 
As always happens when we are at our most religious,   we refuse to see reality . Last time I looked the critical storage of things like computer hard drives is done with you guessed it - Lead acid batteries --really old technology.,
  The reality in physics is that Ions don't like living close to each other and any voltage above 1.5 sets the parties apart . Explosive stuff.

Thinking we were going to keep warm without coal when wind and solar weren't working is  bout as stupid and blind as one can get YET  Green laborites  have been not only advocating it for decades but spending our money on their dreams.
Realistic scientists.have been fighting blinkered ED groups like they have in ABC for decades Truly time that group got some real practical professional scientists - instead of science worshipers . That religious group have had their say .

Yes, our  religion can be a risk prone problem .( even denying you have one can be a problem )
Make sure yours is a realistic and as predictive as possible when it comes to the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

Monday, February 6, 2017

More police , more money or just more fear of real personal evil in the audience ?

We don't know how to stop crime but Labor s vulnerability to arguments which blame the criminals environment and not their decision making  wilfulness are the base of their particular failure to support the idea of personal responsibility-- at least part of the wider problem of fear ( not crime incidents )

The hypocrisy of the puppet led Daniel Andrews group is that they would tell us how to bring up children when they appear to have no idea.
Tell me  I'm wrong . Tell John Cain he was wrong to worry 
 If we are to PREVENT /reduce adult problems we must have those quiet  strategies that starts early and understands rather than responds-- like DA's  huge emergency management empires.
Puppets pushed around by the sentiment and unsubstantiated; the highly  reactionary  way they spend our money which is sadly , their right of passage.
You need to stop them hurting others in kinder if you are ever to stop young people making excuses for driving around and damaging people .
The spring street gang JUST want us to be kinder ,but aren't mature enough in their thinking to know and practice some form of apparent cruelty.  
Being cruel to be kind- that doesn't come into it when you are arrogant parents of someone else's children.