Correlation is NOT causation; Many say “ I know” what the problem is when they only see one correlation.The media world know the audience are impatient about ways to solve real world problems, so the wannabes specialize in offering us well dressed correlations- no complications
.Many publicly funded institutions are thus failing to maintain basic competencies, careers and credibility in complex areas like sustainability science.
Facts prove nothing ,Process probabilities predict possible pursuits .
No I don't expect most polys to get this, those of you who want to be ahead of them and the average wannabes, hang in there
Because I have written many times on the process problems generally, let me give you an example from my experience .
- an example of this ongoing stupidity is that on this very day in August 2017 the government are chasing more billions to model climate and MDB issues when the limitations of the existing data need to be understood and accepted -- all the stupidity and crude speculation will remain till the process probabilities are understood.
Why I wouldn't trust the BOM
As one who has relied on BOM figures for interpreting
extreme runoff events ( I designed stream structures) for three decades, I have
absolutely NO confidence in the 100 yrs bureaus history of records to date -
let alone the risk associated with using automatic devices for some
measurements (esp temp and rainfall but for different reasons ) .
At least with volunteers the records could show the
disagreements with Head Oficce when " strange things happen",
I know several long term volunteer recorders in the Otways
who were not believed when they sent data in, These no record figures meant no
record on some of the most unusual days in our history. .
Typical comment from HO was "you must have lost count
of the number of times you emptied the column".Read about otways floods for full story here and here
My incredulity increased when i realised that those original
( but never recorded by BOM) records explained why we had such incredible river
flows in those years.
I still can't truly believe the BOM operate scientifically -
they still shift recorder locations and still expect to use the new sites in
climate modelling - This very bad practice has caused many of us to find the
rainfall data from some stations relatively worthless for long term records.
While auto recording make sense, so does not moving those
record sites and using volunteers to record and investigate at some ( esp unusual
The outstanding incompetence of the BOM was highlighted
recently when the phenomenon I discovered in the Otways in the the 1990s was
not even anticipated in Toowoomba catchments ( major Qld floods) with the same
weather and physical precursors in the early millennium.
until someone asks me i will avoid repeating myself HERE